The aim of this project is to develop a platform for probabilistic assessment of unintentional leakage of radioactive materials associated with deep repositories. This platform will consist of the following components:
This platform is developed and applied using the example of salt formations, which in principle represent an option in the search for repositories. To assess the uncertainty of deep repositories, the following processes are relevant in the modelling and will be included in the probabilistic assessment here: (a) density-driven (thermohaline) flow, (b) heat transport, (c), transport of dissolved salt and of radionuclides, (d) fractured-porous rocks. To assess the suitability of possible repository sites, the groundwater age also plays a role, which is also to be simulated. Since the exact rock parameters (e.g. location of fractures, permeabilities) and boundary conditions are unknown, this uncertainty enters into the creation of the probabilistic evaluation platform. The final product should be a risk-informed tool for the decision maker.
The project is being worked on by two project partners: Institute for Risk and Reliability (IRZ) and Institute for Fluid Mechanics and Environmental Physics in Civil Engineering (ISU) at Leibniz Universität Hannover (LUH). The IRZ develops the probabilistic framework and the ISU carries out the numerical simulations.